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The archive / Latest edition · 2025–2026

2025–2026.
A view, tested in real time.

This is the most recent period in my published record: from the 2025 long and the shift to a bearish view, through the 2026 shorts and the June long. The original posts follow the story as it happened.

Each year, I’ll add a new chapter documenting the trades and revisions, with links to the evidence.

In April 2025, I took the long and later closed around $110K. By October, I thought the top was likely in and was short from around $111K. I took profits, then continued looking for opportunities on the downside into 2026.

That path included wrong calls: a counter-trend long in November and stopped shorts in the spring. In May, I re-entered the short near $78K. In June, I closed it near $60K and switched to a long-term position. The following chapters trace that progression.

What I choose to document +

I focus this archive on higher-timeframe positions, where I commit more capital. I also trade intraday and take losses there. This is a selected research and trading record, not a complete intraday log; losses in the longer-horizon record remain visible too.

The period, in one view.

2025–2026 / with late-2024 chart context

A dated overview of Arthur’s Bitcoin analyses and trades, including wins, losses, and original X and Discord messages.

A retrospective assembled on October 6, 2026. The chart starts in late 2024 to provide context; the story below follows the decisions made in 2025–2026, including losses.

Read the corner post ↗

01 / The shift in view · October–November 2025

A cycle thesis.
Tested against the market.

I anticipated the top and kept trading the downside after taking profits. The October 31 post lays out the cycle framework; the November posts examine liquidity, positioning, and the levels that could change my view.

Bitcoin halving-cycle chart published by Arthur on October 31, 2025, showing the model’s historical phases.
The cycle framework · Oct 31 ↗The bearish thesis · Nov 8 ↗The live plan · Nov 10 ↗Execution update · Nov 12 ↗
Different questions, different data +

I compared cycle history with the liquidity thesis, then examined ETF flows, stablecoin conditions, funding, and open interest. Price structure and weekly levels translated that broader view into a trade. These are complementary perspectives; their agreement alone does not establish statistical independence.

On November 10, I was watching a relief rally into $108–110K. A clean break and acceptance above $114K with strong cumulative volume delta would make me reassess the remaining short bias. The plan made room for being wrong.

Why the model needed live context ↗Read the full analysis ↗

Also in the record / November 2025–April 2026

The calls that went wrong.

The November counter-trend long was a loss. Shorts in the spring were stopped out before the later May–June trade worked. Those decisions remain part of this history.

In an April 7 update, I reported “total -1r between the 2 last positions.” These are reported outcomes; the selected posts do not establish a complete net return.

The loss update · April 7 ↗The recap, including losses ↗

02 / Following through · May–June 2026

Into 2026.
Trading the downside.

The bearish view continued into 2026. After stopped attempts in the spring, I re-entered near $78.1K on May 17, took partial profits on June 2, and posted full take-profit near $60K on June 5. Here are the original setup and exit.

Original Discord posts: the May 17 Bitcoin short setup and the June 5 full take-profit update.
The entry · May 17 ↗Partial profits · June 2 ↗Full take-profit · June 5 ↗
The method in this example +

The chart makes the plan inspectable: a defined entry, an upper risk boundary, and a lower target. Subsequent posts document how I managed the position. Pragmatism connects an idea to an action; intellectual honesty keeps the initial plan alongside the outcome.

This trade sits within the broader bearish research above. The entry message records the setup; it does not contain every input behind the decision.

03 / Changing direction · June–October 2026

Then the opportunity changed.
From short to long.

After closing the short, I opened half of a planned long-term position near $60K on June 5, with a stated 12–36 month horizon. This before-and-after pairs the original entry with the October 6 update.

Before and after: Arthur’s June 5 long entry near 60,000 dollars and the October 6 chart update.

This edition covers selected work from 2025–2026. Future annual editions will extend the record, preserving the original posts and subsequent revisions. Overview boards were assembled retrospectively; Discord links may require community access.

Prepare together. Return every week. ↗