Pragmatism
In trading, I seek profitable opportunities with the knowledge and tools available, within real costs and risk limits. A model need not explain the entire market to be useful.
Understand markets.
Build your judgment.
An independent market research workshop, by Arthur
01 / My research principles
A practical aim.
My methodology.
Every investigation starts with interests and a purpose. Mine are economic and playful: I want to find opportunities and enjoy the search.
I aim to share what I learn with intellectual honesty. I believe honesty and curiosity sustain learning with integrity and lead to highly useful knowledge.
ArthurTestability
Choose the test that fits the question. Ask what would change my mind, and leave room for an inconclusive answer.
Intellectual honesty
Separate what I know from what I suspect. Keep mistakes visible and revise claims when the evidence changes.
Curiosity
Follow the question across disciplines. Examine the assumptions, including my own, and stay open to an unexpected answer.
Simplicity
Simpler is not always truer. When two explanations fit the evidence equally well, I prefer the one with fewer assumptions. Variables have to earn their place.
Reflexivity
Traders act on what they see, and their trades change what everyone sees next. A pattern that becomes popular starts to change. I study that loop, including my own place in it.
02 / Adaptation
We rebuild the boat
while we sail.
There is no dry dock. I can't step out of the market, or out of my own head, to rebuild from certain foundations. Any plank can be replaced, the measurements included, but only a few at a time while the rest keep me afloat.
The sea moves too, partly because of the boats on it. A model that worked can stop working because people trade it.
I trade my own capital. That is my skin in the game: I bear the consequences and stay willing to change my mind.
Information gets priced in. Character takes longer. The edge I trust most is the habit of looking again every day and keeping the record. The weekly plans and the archive are where you can check it.
After Otto Neurath.
See a revision in practiceA year of building and testing.
With receipts.
Research and code, documented along the way, revisions included.
GitHub contributions2026
04 / The community
Prepare together.
Return every week.
Each week, we prepare on Discord with a shared calendar: plan at the start of the week and review at the end. A steady rhythm keeps the work consistent.
Meet the communityEmergence
Sample weekA week to think together.
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
Prepare for the week
Scenarios, conditions, and questions for the week ahead.